Commission urges the U.S. to strengthen prevention efforts as new analysis ties persecution of minorities to looming mass violence.
In a stark September 2025 policy update, the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) warned that the persecution of religious communities often foreshadows atrocities on a national scale. The report argues that when governments or armed groups target people for their faith, the path toward genocide, crimes against humanity, or mass killings becomes alarmingly clear .
The findings rest on a comparison between the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Early Warning Project and USCIRF’s 2025 Annual Report. More than half of the countries flagged as most at risk of mass killings are also those where USCIRF recommends the highest-level U.S. designations for egregious religious freedom violations. Nations such as Burma, Pakistan, India, and Nigeria appear on both lists, underscoring the role of religious repression as a harbinger of broader violence .
The Commission situates its warning within the framework of the Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act, a bipartisan law signed in 2018 that requires annual reports and government-wide coordination. While initial reports were filed during the Trump administration, USCIRF notes that the current administration missed its first deadline to update Congress, leaving a gap in oversight at a moment of rising risks .
Complicating the landscape further, the State Department has dissolved its Office of Global Criminal Justice, once central to genocide determinations. The responsibility now shifts to the Office of the Legal Adviser, changing how future atrocity findings will be handled .
The report concludes with a call for urgency. USCIRF urges the government to release overdue International Religious Freedom reports, clarify which agencies bear responsibility for atrocity prevention, and restore funding to foreign assistance programs that once shielded vulnerable communities. “Promoting religious freedom is a crucial tool in preventing atrocities,” the Commission states, pressing policymakers to use every available instrument before patterns of persecution harden into mass violence .
Why This Matters:
At the heart of this USCIRF update is a simple but uncomfortable truth: persecution of religious communities is not just a human rights issue, it is an early signal of mass violence. International law has long recognized that genocide and crimes against humanity often begin with the dehumanization of a particular group. When a government strips a community of its religious rights, restricts their worship, or treats them as outsiders, the groundwork is being laid for something much worse.
The Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act of 2018 was designed to give the United States tools to act before violence spirals out of control. It requires annual reports to Congress and interagency cooperation, the kind of bureaucratic infrastructure that can save lives if used effectively. USCIRF’s warning that deadlines are being missed is more than a technical complaint. It is a red flag that the system meant to catch early risks is not functioning as intended.
The reorganization of the State Department adds another wrinkle. By dissolving the Office of Global Criminal Justice and transferring responsibilities to the Legal Adviser’s office, the government has moved decision-making into a legal framework that may be less nimble and less visible to the public. Genocide determinations are not just legal opinions. They carry diplomatic, financial, and sometimes military consequences. A shift in who makes these calls could delay or dilute U.S. responses.
The larger point is that prevention requires vigilance. Once mass killings begin, options narrow to sanctions, refugee support, or military intervention. By contrast, protecting religious freedom early can reduce the risk that violence escalates at all. That is why USCIRF stresses overdue reports, program funding, and clarity of responsibility. These may sound like technical fixes, but in the language of atrocity prevention, they are the difference between “never again” as rhetoric and “never again” as practice.
Full report: 2025 Mass Atrocities Policy Update (PDF)
Web version: USCIRF – Preventing Mass Atrocities Targeting Religious Communities
Tags: USCIRF, religious freedom, genocide prevention, Elie Wiesel Act, U.S. foreign policy